Where has it all gone wrong?

OK, so things have got worse, much worse.

Well actually first they got better; I had a 10,000 stretch of hands when I managed to get about an 8/9 buy in upswing together.

But this way sickeningly followed by a sharp loss of over 11 buy ins in the space of 5,000 hands.

I then managed to somehow steady things, and stop the heavy losses with a break even patch over 50,000 hands or so.

It felt like I was making some very slow progress, I was running awful but playing good (or at least I thought I was.

Then from nowhere I was hit again, in the space of 10,000 hands I managed to drop a further 20 buy ins!

I am down just under 50 buy ins for the month so far.

I know what you guys must be thinking:

“...Yigit you are just a super fish...”

“...let me add this dude to my buddy list...”

“...Yigit you want to play some heads up with me?...”

“...you need to quit poker and work at Burger King ASAP...”

“...no decent (winning player) can have such a downswing...”

“...you are just pure bad...”

“...Yigit you lose playing live...you lose playing in Vegas...you lose playing micro stakes online...don’t you think it’s time you accepted the fact that you are just not very good at poker?...”

Mmm, maybe. But I can't start thinking like that!

However I have taken a day out and gone through how I managed to find myself in this spot (well more of a hole actually!), day by day (actually hand by hand), I have analysed and studied the +100,000 hands / stats I have on my Poker Tracker for the month of January (so far), please join me on my trip through a 50 buy in nose dive...

I was slightly daunted due to the sheer volume of hands I had to go through, and wasn’t quite sure how to approach it. I decided it would be best to break hands down into individual days they were played in as opposed to taking an overview of the month.

I decided that I would simplify the analysis by initially only looking at pots which I won or lost that were 100BBs or bigger in size (big pots).

For each day I will sort and tally the hands into the following categories:

Bad beats (hands which I got my money in good pre flop, on the flop or on the turn and was outdrawn).

Good beats (hands which I got my money in bad pre flop, on the flop or on the turn bad and managed to get lucky!).

Sweet Coolers

Fuck My Life Coolers

All other standard hands I will leave out.
I will then “cross book” these numbers and establish if I got the “rub of the green” or not.

I think before I start breaking down the hands it’s worth describing my “default” 6 max strategy.

I realise due to the fact I am playing a minimum of 9 tables (and up to 16), I will play somewhat robotic, and probably not optimum all the time (especially post flop), however I believe whatever I lose in win rate, I can make up (and more) in rake back earned.

I also appreciate and acknowledge this is not the best attitude to have, and it will certainly not make me a better poker player, but I will make money –and at the moment I need money.

I play a simple TAG style, with a great emphasis on a solid pre flop strategy.

I play a very very tight range in early and middle position, and open up a great deal on the cut off and button.

I will pretty much open any two on the button versus passive blinds (I look for opponents who have a very low 3 bet %, and a high fold to steal %). I will leave a table, and find a more suitable table if I encounter aggressive / competent players to my immediate left. So basically I won’t just blindly open and fold to 3 bets for an hour, nor will I stay and adjust –no point, when there are softer games out there.

I will c-bet most flops with a suitable texture, and barrel for value with hands I figure to be winning. I will rarely barrel with “air” after my c-bet is called. Again, I understand this is not an optimum line, and can easily be exploited. When I encounter opponents who are competent enough to take advantage of my lack of “balance”, I may seek an alternative table.

I will 3 bet liberally (not so much so early in the month, but recently I have been) opponents with high steal and fold to 3 bet %.

I will very rarely set mine verses steal raises, I will either fold or 3 bet.

I will very rarely call 3 bets, especially with small pockets pairs (stacks simply do not offer the required implied odds to do so and obviously with my “fit or fold” strategy post flop I would be haemorrhaging money if I did).

I will very very rarely fold over pairs post flop, simply because they are good most the time and you will find many opponents overplaying top pair hands. So folding an over pair in fear of a set just because you get check raised on the flop in my opinion would be a huge mistake.

I profile my opponents using their HUD stats, and my decisions are made generic as opposed to situational.

Amm, so yeah that’s pretty much a basic outline of my approach. I appreciate that I need the big pots when I get my money in good to hold up, as I am not winning enough small pots (due to a fit or fold post flop strategy), though I feel I make up for this by a sufficient amount of steals (and re steals through light 3 betting) pre flop. So that is why my study of the month is concentrated around these significant big pots.

So here were go...

Day One (2nd January 2010):

100-200BB pots which I lost:

Bad Beats: -$290.47
Fuck My Life Coolers: -$365.72

I really couldn’t find any big pots which I lost where I could have avoided putting my money in; they were all either coolers or bad beats. I can’t feel too bad.

100-200BB pots which I won:

Good Beats: +$50.70
Sweet Coolers: +$922.88

I had a decent amount of coolers go my way it seems, however this is exactly what I am hoping for, and why I am happy to give up a certain edge multi tabling (and play fit or fold post flop), because I know over a high volume of hands I will find enough profitable situations. Also a lot of these coolers could of been avoided (and certainly I wouldn't find myself in most these spots). For example, some guy calls a 3 bet with A10, flop is AA2, I have AK, though for the purpose of this analysis I put this as a cooler, I think it can obviously be avoided.


I don’t really expect to clock up many "good beats" simply because I hardly ever get my money in bad, so I rely on my hands holding up, and today I fell well short of getting a fair run in such situations.

As illustrated by my EV graph for the day below, I ran about 5 buy ins below expectation.

So not a great day, but not horrible neither. Much worse was to follow!

I will continue in my next post...

So this is how you can lose 30 buy-ins...

Not much to say right now, I just felt like posting some of the beats from the last few days...

A mild one to start of with:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462304
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $15.35
MP: $25.00
CO: $79.44
BTN: $30.25
SB: $31.18
Hero (BB): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A K

UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, BTN raises to $1.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.90
Flop: ($6.35) 7 K 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.75, BTN calls $3.75
Turn: ($13.85) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7.25, Hero raises to $18.25 all in, BTN calls $11
River: ($50.35) Q (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $50.35
BTN shows Q K (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Hero shows A K (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
BTN wins $47.84
(Rake: $2.51)

I like my line there, check shove turn is sexy I think...

OK so another one:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462316
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $31.74
Hero (BTN): $26.82
SB: $49.15
BB: $35.70
UTG: $25.22
MP: $17.73

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 3 3

2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60
Flop: ($2.65) 3 K Q (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $2, Hero raises to $6.25, BB folds, CO raises to $30.89 all in, Hero calls $19.72 all in
Turn: ($54.59) J (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($54.59) T (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: $54.59

CO shows 8 A (a straight, Ace high)
Hero shows 3 3 (three of a kind, Threes)
CO wins $51.87
(Rake: $2.72)

Yeah I know this one is pretty standard, the guy just jams a bare flush draw but the way he gets there is fun!

OK, let me turn up the heat a little bit....how do you like this one? Another sexy check shove on the turn:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462332
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $34.77
SB: $50.15
Hero (BB): $25.70
UTG: $24.30
MP: $35.31
CO: $27.49

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 6 6

2 folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.60) 6 K 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, CO raises to $1.20, Hero raises to $4.20, CO calls $3
Turn: ($9.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6, Hero raises to $21.25 all in, CO calls $15.25
River: ($51.50) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $51.50
Hero shows 6 6 (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO shows 8 3 (a flush, Eight high)
CO wins $48.93
(Rake: $2.57)

This one is one of the best ones, I catch a sweet card on the turn, get my money in....

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462334
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $30.79
MP: $27.24
CO: $26.20
Hero (BTN): $25.35
SB: $35.40
BB: $18.53

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 9 9

2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.05) T T 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.05) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.50, CO raises to $12.50, Hero raises to $23 all in, CO calls $10.50
River: ($51.05) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $51.05
CO shows 7 7 (four of a kind, Sevens)
Hero shows 9 9 (a full house, Nines full of Tens)
CO wins $48.50
(Rake: $2.55)

Weeee!

This one stung a little:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 462442
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $41.79
Hero (BB): $25.35
UTG: $23.91
CO: $32.80
BTN: $31.49

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A A
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($2.60) J K 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, UTG calls $2.60
Turn: ($7.80) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.80, UTG raises to $15.60, Hero raises to $21.50 all in, UTG calls $4.46 all in
River: ($47.92) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $47.92
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
UTG shows 4 K (two pair, Kings and Fours)
UTG wins $45.53
(Rake: $2.39)

Another sexy line here, I induce a shove from this guy with my bet sizing on the flop:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462458
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $30.57
UTG: $25.00
MP: $72.59
CO: $25.00
BTN: $33.83
Hero (SB): $25.10

CO posts a big blind ($0.25)

Pre Flop: ($0.60) Hero is SB with A A

2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.75
Flop: ($5.25) 8 4 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $15, Hero raises to $22.60 all in, CO calls $7.50 all in
Turn: ($50.25) J (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($50.25) 9 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $50.25
CO shows T T (a straight, Jack high)
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
CO wins $47.74
(Rake: $2.51)

Runner runner straight hurts a lot.

Here is a simple one, nice flop for this guy eh?:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462249
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $7.43
CO: $41.48
BTN: $47.96
SB: $25.10
Hero (BB): $25.51
UTG: $35.37

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A A

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.65, BTN raises to $9.25, Hero raises to $25.51 all in, BTN calls $16.26
Flop: ($51.12) J T Q
Turn: ($51.12) Q
River: ($51.12) 5

Final Pot: $51.12
BTN shows K A (a straight, Ace high)
Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Queens)
BTN wins $48.57
(Rake: $2.55)

Have you had enough let? I had, but no it didn't stop there!

How do you like this one? Let me hear you say "TWO OUTER"...

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462472
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $7.87
Hero (MP): $27.27
CO: $30.13
BTN: $25.00
SB: $43.61
BB: $15.77

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with K K

1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 1 fold, SB raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.15, CO calls $2.15
Flop: ($9.25) 2 K 7 (3 players)
SB bets $6.75, Hero raises to $24.27 all in, CO folds, SB calls $17.52
Turn: ($57.79) T (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($57.79) A (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $57.79
Hero shows K K (three of a kind, Kings)
SB shows A A (three of a kind, Aces)
SB wins $54.91
(Rake: $2.88)

Here is a sick one, this one really really hurt. By the way I have put these hands in order, so the ones at the top happen first, and then the ones that follow happened thereafter. So you can imagine if you are getting these beats, one after another the pain gets real bad! Worse and worse...

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 462480
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $25.60
CO: $70.30
BTN: $35.87
SB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9 9

1 fold, BTN raises to $0.75, SB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2.50, BTN calls $2
Flop: ($8.25) 9 8 K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, BTN folds, SB calls $3
Turn: ($14.25) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $8.75, Hero raises to $19.85 all in, SB calls $10.50 all in
River: ($52.75) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $52.75
Hero shows 9 9 (three of a kind, Nines)
SB shows 4 4 (a flush, King high)
SB wins $50.75
(Rake: $2.00)

Just looking at this hand, I actually don't like my cold call of the 3 bet (what with the original raiser let to close the action behind me), but I think I did so because we were playing 4 handed at the time, plus the button has a huge stealing range there, and the guy in the small blind is a competent regular who 3 bets light there a lot. So maybe I should of 4 bet, but I don't 4 bet fold as a rule (and I don't feel great about getting my money in pre flop with 99), and I think folding is a little bit too tight.

Here is another not so nice river:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 462492
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $25.25
UTG: $27.81
CO: $32.38
BTN: $37.04
Hero (SB): $25.10

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 2 2
UTG requests TIME, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($1.45) 2 6 T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, BTN calls $1.45
Turn: ($4.35) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.35, BTN raises to $34.99 all in, Hero calls $18.70 all in
River: ($50.45) T (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $50.45
BTN shows 6 8 (a full house, Sixes full of Tens)
Hero shows 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Tens)
BTN wins $47.93
(Rake: $2.52)

At this point only after a few days of playing, everytime I got my money in good (like this), I knew the river was going to fuck me, and when (sometimes), it didn't and my hand held up, I actually felt like I sucked out! Seriously!

So in the following hand, when that river card hit, I wasn't suprised. It just really hurt. How does this guy call the shove on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462247
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $106.78
MP: $111.58
Hero (CO): $29.81
BTN: $6.82
SB: $25.00
BB: $111.52

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with A A
1 fold, MP raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $3.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($7.95) 3 4 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7
Turn: ($21.95) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $19.31 all in, BB calls $19.31
River: ($60.57) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $60.57
Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Fours)
BB shows 4 6 (three of a kind, Fours)
BB wins $57.57
(Rake: $3.00)

Wow, really?

OK, another simple one, all in pre flop again with AA vs AK:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 462509
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $17.66
UTG: $26.82
MP: $34.66
CO: $25.57
BTN: $11.33
Hero (SB): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A A

UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.25, 1 fold, UTG raises to $9.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $25 all in, UTG calls $15.50
Flop: ($51.00) K 7 8
Turn: ($51.00) 2
River: ($51.00) 9

Final Pot: $51.00
UTG shows A K (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
UTG wins $48.45
(Rake: $2.55)

Amm, and then there were also key "session breaker" pots like this one here, 3 way all in with the nuts, hold one time?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 462515
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.12
SB: $41.76
BB: $20.93
UTG: $25.00
CO: $98.31

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A J

UTG calls $0.25, CO raises to $1.10, Hero calls $1.10, 1 fold, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85
Flop: ($4.50) 5 2 7 (4 players)
BB bets $4.50, UTG folds, CO calls $4.50, Hero raises to $10.50, BB raises to $19.83 all in, CO calls $15.33, Hero raises to $24.02 all in, CO calls $4.19
Turn: ($72.37) 2 (3 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($72.37) 6 (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $72.37
Hero shows A J (a flush, Ace high)
BB shows 7 7 (a full house, Sevens full of Twos)
CO shows 6 8 (a flush, Eight high)
Hero wins $8.38
BB wins $60.99
(Rake: $3.00)

I have honestly been getting goat raped. I am not making this up. I was speaking to Rosh earlier who said if someone said to me I would have a +30 buy downswing within a 5/6 day period, that I would not believe it, and he is right.

I never thought it was possible to run this bad.

The above hands account for about 15 buy-ins of it, and please be honest and give me some feedback. What can I do with the hands above? I got the nuts, I get it in, they suck out. So 15 buy-ins gone. You have no power.

I also have 10-15 hands which I can post too which are complete coolers, set over set, AA vs KK all in pre, flop top two run into set. Turn a set which also gives some cunt the nut straight (a disguised gutshot or something).

Lots of overpairs running into sets. I just don't fold AA-QQ on dry low boards to these donks, if they flopped a set then they are going to have to show it down. Simply because they play so bad, and most the time (as you can see from the hands above) they get it in very light. So when you get a spell of running a lot of overpairs into sets, you lose a lot of buy ins.

I also want to point out this has all happened between the 2nd January - 7th January. It really is sickening to experience such negative variance over a very short period of time.

I have however played over 50,000 hands, so I have to put things into context, and realise downswings (and hopefully at some point upswings) will be more extreme when playing such a high volume.

I will get through this.