Saturday, 21 February 2009

There is an early position raise up to £8, and several callers before the action gets to you on the button, you look down and see KQ off.

What is your play here in a relatively deep stack no limit cash game?

What goes through your mind before you make up your decision to call, fold or raise?

My logical thought process seems to be in a constant battle with my gut and my instinct. What I mean is that I will not necessary sit there and run through all the variables effecting the decision at hand.

I will snap it off, and await the flop.

Even though I haven't thought through the play, I do know that I am not playing for stacks if I flop a pair, I am looking for the off chance that I develop a nut hand.

Now believe it or not there are monkeys out there who will flop a king or queen and proceed to build a huge pot, as simple as this may sound to a competent player it shouldn't be taken for granted that a well seasoned gut / instinct will know doing that would be unprofitable to say the least!

Deeper a no limit game gets the easier the pre flop decisions become. You can pretty much limp, and cold call (even more so over call) a large range of hands due to the implied odds offered by not only the original aggressor but by the other opponents in the pots.

Basically you can make less mistakes pre flop in deep games, as opposed to games when your opponents are short stacked. I consider 100 big blinds deep, 50 big blinds short, and 150+ very deep.

I will really tighten my range, and sharpen my aggression when playing in a shorter game. So if I were in this same situation with KQ on the button (in a game not deep), I would be folding 65% of the time and 35% of the time 3 betting to isolate (and take the lead to the flop in position). Selective aggression.

However I really do losen my range, and will happily limp and call raises when deep. I will even utilise hands such as 99,1010,JJ for their set mining value as opposed to their face value, simply due to well disguised implied odds they offer.

Anyway, so I over call on the button with KQ off, and the flop comes down: J 10 x (two diamonds).

I think the pot was 5 way (I think, my recall is awful!) so there was around £40 in the pot.

The original raiser led (either the blinds had folded pre, or they checked the flop not quite sure) for £39, with about £170 behind (again not 100% sure but it apperared that he had a full stack).

Action folded to me (with a couple more live players behind me). So what now? What goes through my mind here? Pre flop was an automatic snap call, without thinking because the mechanics of the decision are quite simple, but here...I tanked...

I really have a very odd way of thinking through situations at the heat of the moment, I think I actually think through things the wrong way round. I actually reach a decision without breaking down the reasoning, then before I act I work my way back through the reasoning.

So last night I was like....

I am shoving this flop...and then I will be like hold on...what does he have? What does he think I have? What will he think I have if I shove? What will he think I have if I flat? Will he fold to a shove (do I have any fold equity)? What will he do on the turn if I flat? Do I have any fold equity on the turn, if he checks and I shove? Is he committed to the pot now? I will consider the current expressed odds, along with the implied odds offered.

When I explain to someone who doesnt really play poker, that I sit there and think through all these things (as well as make some mathemical calculations), while the whole table is waiting for me to act (and often calling time on me), they find it really hard to understand. But it really is not that hard, your gut, instint and experience pretty much takes over.

OK...so in my reverse thought process before I think about my opponent's range, I tend to evaluate the strength of my hand first...

I know that I am drawing to the nuts with a 9 or an ace. So I have 4x9s and 4xAces I can hit to win. Simply put 8 outs.

Ammm...well no not really. It is very unlikely that all my outs are live. Firstly considering my opponent's range, I am fortunate to have about 1,000,000 hours of table time with him, and based on his pre flop and post flop action I can pretty much narrow his range down to the following hands:

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AQ (diamonds), AK (diamonds), 1010, 99 (unlikely but possible),KQ suited, QJ suited.

So basically nearly every hand in his range will have be using one of my outs, so I am drawing even thinner than before.

I also have to consider the players behind me who could be drawing to the flush, and with my call, will want to speculate, and say if I hit a 9 of diamonds on the turn, well...check fold?

But lets simplify the situation, and say we know they are all folding, where does this leave me?

I am not getting the expressed odds to call, and I am getting very thin implied odds. I am pretty happy in the knowledge that this particular opponent "plays for stacks" once in a pot, so if I do hit I am getting the rest of his stack.

What will he put me on if I flat? Maybe a set? Maybe I will get a free card on the turn. So if I call £39, and peel, there is chance I hit my straight, and get the rest of his stack, or I could miss, and I may even get a free card (unlikely but a possibility).

Shove? Maybe, but my fold equity is very thin on a board that draw heavy, and I don't like the idea of getting £200 in such a bad spot.

I much rather pay £39 and see what happens. That is basically what goes through my head, in a blur anyway...

The result of the hand is irrelevant, is the £39 call on the turn bad?

Yigit

1 comment:

Rosh said...
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