Interesting hand continued...

I have had several e mails and comments regarding the hand, really appeciate your feedback guys!

Rosh "The Fish" e mailed me his thoughts, I e mailed him back with my thoughts on his thoughts, and thought I would copy it onto here (as most of what he was saying was what you boys were saying too).

Here is my reply to him, his notes from his e mail in red....

Yo Rosh...

100% agree with this:

"If he has flopped A 10 and has check called you then I think that's a pretty goofy play, and even worse if he has A3. With A 10 or A3 he has to check raise"

That is why I also thought:

"That's not to say that he doesn't have A 10. Just that if he does I think he has taken a bad line. If, as you say, he is a thinking/observant player, then for the sake of your analysis you need to assume he's taking a good line in the hand"

I would of said it would be goddamn awful not to check raise in this spot with A3 or A10. Even though he was closing the action, meaning that everyone had folded around to him (so he wouldnt need to worry about no one else and go to the turn heads up).

I think this is a very important factor because, if say someone had called my flop bet I think 100% he would raise it up here with 2 pair, but versus just me (with what he thinks is a very narrow range AQ/AK/AJ maybe 10 10), is he confident to take this line?

But you are right there are too many cards which can come on the turn to kill the action, in fact too many for any competent player to take a line of just flatting. So I assumed (rightly or wrongly) that he was a decent thinking player and would think of this too.

I think that the range you are assigning here is too wide (but I also think you have left out 10x hands K10 through to 109):

"I don't think you should try to put him on an exact hand here. You need to assign him a range. And his range looks something like this:"

- Ace rag (as in AJ down, not including A 10/A3)
- A Q (you could be chopping?)
- A K
- JQ /KQ / KJ (gutshot = unlikely)
- A 10
- A 3
- 10 10
- 3 3
- Pocket Pair
- club draw
- Float

He is never going to have AQ, AK, AJ, or A10, this guy has been very active and there is no reason he would not of raised pre flop in the "hijack" even with several limpers. Maybe, just maybe he may join the limp fest with A10 but from what I had seen it was very unlikely.

The gutshot hands, yes I agree these could be included. He may have these. But again I am making this guy sound like a maniac but with 2 picture cards with his aggressive nature and favourable position (and his general "action play" tendencies) I would of thought he would of raised pre flop.

No way 1010. He would of raised. 100% sure of this.

Under pairs yes (including 33), club draw yes, ace rag (including A3) yes, basic float somewhat unlikely because he was out of position (and going along with the "competent / thinking" player line we have to assume he is not doing this out of position).

So how much would you bet here? And are you planning to fold to a check raise?:

"If you bet here and he sticks around you can be pretty sure you're in trouble. Then it’s really down to you whether you think you can get away from a check-shove or big river bet. From the info at hand you should"

And again, what if he flats? And then just open shoves the river. Club you fold? No club you call?

I don't know if you can get away from the hand when you bet the turn. I still have 220 behind (if I bet 80) so I suppose I could, but am I folding the best hand when he does check raise most of the time?

100% with you on the following...

"I understand your thoughts about pot control but you can’t lock down on monsters amid those fears. Giving a free card if he has some kind of draw is not good. And also, against his calling range you figure to be ahead so you should also be thinking about maximising value from the hand. After all, if he has Ace rag or is trying to make hero calls with just the 10 or a pocket pair then you’ve got him. Remember, you did raise the button so it might be running through his mind that you’re on a move or trying to take it down with a mid-high pocket pair."

How about this, say he called me on the flop with an under pair to the board, lets say 99 or 88, or any hand containing a 10 (K10 through to 109 very plausible right?).

The ace has not changed a thing. In fact he probably feels better about his hand along the lines that it makes it less likely for me to have an ace. If I was him I certainly would. If you call the flop with a 10, you must think, well I am probably still good here, surely?

And take into consideration the hand I mentioned when he flopped a straight with 10 8. His hand was very marginal, so this guy is capable of making "hero" / marginal calls.

I actually thought at the time when he checked to me, he may very likely have K10 or Q10 (maybe an underpair).

So how about we over bet the pot, make our line look like a bluff. Make him think why would he bet so much with 3 aces. This way I think not only do we price out flush draws (maybe we lose a flush draw customer but as I said before he doesn't always have to have a flush draw when there are two clubs out there) and at the same time put him into a "hero" call spot.

I don't know, I prefer small donk betting if in fact we want him to continue with his 10x and under pair hands (this for sure will induce bluffs, as opposed to over betting the pot because it just gives him no room to be able to do that). You see what I mean, or am I mumbling like a Bulgarian goat farmer?

Also Rosh, have you made up your mind what you are going to do before you lead the turn? Or are you thinking let me lead the turn here, and then lets see what he does? Plan for a hand? Or lets evaluate as we get more information?

Thank you for your input bro,(hope you don't mind I am going to copy this e mail onto my blog),

Results soon!

Yigit (still hanging with Bulgarians).

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So with all that said.

The good news: I bet the 80 Euros on the turn.

The bad news: He raised it up to 200 Euros.

120 more to me, I have 220 behind.

When I bet, he looked at me, looked at his stack.

He was smoking (yes in Bulgaria you can smoke at the table), and he pulled the cigarrete out of his mouth and put it on the ash try (he didnt put it out).

He asked me how much I was playing. I told him.

He bet 220.

While I was thinking (questioning my decision to go with the hand). He said: "Do you have an ace?".

I looked at him disgusted, said nothing, and kept thinking. He resumed smoking.

OK, so help! What do you do? Based on tells as well please!

Thanks,

Yigit