Just another poker blog...: Flip a coin...

OK so in poker there is no such thing as running bad. Each hand is an entity of its own right?

The previous hand will have no influence on the current hand nor will it have any influence on the next hand.

Basic math and probability dictates this. However there will be periods where certain possibilities, be it negative or positive outcomes are concentrated within a short period of time.

The best way to illustrate this I think is flipping a coin. 50/50 chance right? You would expect the coin to land on heads as much as it will land on tails. But there is also a chance that if you were to flip a coin ten times now, that you may get a result which is against the expected probability.

I just flipped a coin, and it landed on heads 7 times! Fuck my life I run bad!

But if you continued to flip this coin, say 20, 30, 100, 500 times, you will get closer to a 50/50 spread of results.

This is what poker comes down to. Volume. Pure volume. Every situation you find yourself in, every decision you are faced with has a certain possibility for the outcome.

Studying, learning, and ultimately being able to work out your probability of getting a positive outcome in a hand (which is referred to as your "equity") is the easy part.

For example, you have AA and have managed to get all your money in the middle versus some moron who has 1010. Its a $1k pot, late into a tough session, where things haven't been going your way. This is the break you were looking for. You win this pot, you secure a sweet winning session. Weeee....

Good news is about 80% of the time, you will hold and win. But not this time, this guy has found the 20% of the time and has hit another 10 to beat you.

This right now is the hard part.

In order to be able to capitalize on the mathematical edge you hold over these morons, you must continue to keep your shit together.

Keep finding these "positive equity" spots, over and over and over again. Like flipping that coin, you will begin to see the expected results come through.

It may take 1 of these hands, or 5 of these hands, or maybe 20, or maybe 80 or sometimes (touch wood it wont) more! But every time you do get yourself in a spot where you have a favourable equity, you win! It may not seem like it because you may lose, but in the long run, you win!

Imagine someone said to you (and I hate to bore you with coin flipping), OK every time this coin lands on heads I will give you $5, and every time it lands on tails you give me $2. Would you not take it?

Well lately I have been finding myself in games where basically these morons are saying the same thing to me (but in poker terms obviously!), and I take them up on their offer.

But lately they have been beating the variance (going against the expected probability / possibility).

I know this shit as good as any other fucking cunt, this is the basics, the fundamentals of poker! But the problem is the control over my emotional stability.

I get upset, I get frustrated. I tilt. A mild form of tilt but still I tilt, and the moment you tilt you have no chance! Forget it.

Poker is all about that unbreakable resolve. What is the fucking point knowing whats right, and what to do if you cant have the mental strength to implement your strategy?

I am on so much edge right now, that the other day I was absolutely ready to roll around with some French cunt. I swear to fucking god, I had so much un vented shit inside of me that I would of fucking bit his ears off.

Not good! But good news is I have been feeling a lot better last few days, and feel a lot more at ease.

I wanted get this shit down, to re enforce what I have been thinking about, and keep me on the tracks!

I am the luckiest guy in the world, regardless of all the beats and negative variance I have to endure.

I love my life and everything and everybody in it!

Especially because of my ever supportive girlfriend...